2026 NFL Strength of Schedule: Easiest and Hardest Schedules by Win Totals

The 2026 NFL schedule looks different when opponent strength is measured by current market expectations instead of last season's standings. In Warren Sharp's Vegas-based strength-of-schedule model, the Detroit Lions draw the easiest regular-season path and the Arizona Cardinals draw the toughest.

The ranking below uses projected 2026 win totals as the baseline. No schedule metric is perfect, but win totals give a more current view of team quality than simply recycling 2025 records.

#2026 NFL strength of schedule rankings

Rank No. 1 is the easiest schedule. Rank No. 32 is the hardest schedule. The win total column shows each team's listed 2026 Vegas win total from the Sharp Football Analysis table.

#The easiest 2026 NFL schedules

Detroit sits at No. 1, followed by New Orleans, Cincinnati, Cleveland and the New York Jets. That top five creates an interesting mix: the Lions and Bengals already carry major expectations, while the Saints, Browns and Jets get softer opponent slates despite much lower win totals.

The top 10 also includes Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Kansas City. In other words, several established contenders are not being asked to climb the steepest schedule hill on paper.

#The hardest 2026 NFL schedules

Arizona lands at No. 32, with Miami, Carolina, Dallas and the Los Angeles Rams rounding out the five toughest schedules. The Cardinals and Dolphins already have 4.5-win totals, so the schedule does not offer much relief for teams projected near the bottom of the league.

The Rams are the outlier in the hardest group. Their 11.5-win total signals a Super Bowl-level roster, but the opponent slate is still projected to be one of the league's most difficult.

#Why projected win totals matter

Using last year's records can make strength of schedule feel cleaner than it really is. Rosters change, coordinators move, quarterbacks develop or decline, and close-game luck can swing a 17-game record. Projected win totals are not flawless, but they fold in current information that old standings miss.

Sharp's research makes the point bluntly: prior-year opponent records have had a very weak relationship with actual future schedule difficulty. That is why a market-based approach is more useful for preseason analysis, betting context and expectation-setting.

#Biggest schedule changes from 2025

The Colts, Titans and Bengals get the cleanest year-over-year schedule improvement in this model. On the other side, the Dolphins and Cowboys move from favorable 2025 slates to two of the toughest projected schedules in 2026.

#What this means for betting and expectations

Strength of schedule should not be treated like a standalone pick, but it is useful context. A good team with a lighter schedule can justify market confidence, while a fringe team with a brutal draw may need more injury luck or matchup breaks to clear its number. That is especially true when comparing futures, division markets and other NFL betting odds before training camp.

For 2026, the biggest takeaway is simple: several contenders have manageable paths, while a few projected rebuilders are staring at difficult schedules before the season even begins.

#The bottom line

The Lions, Saints, Bengals, Browns and Jets own the easiest 2026 schedules by projected win totals. The Cardinals, Dolphins, Panthers, Cowboys and Rams face the hardest. The exact order will change once the season starts, but this is a sharper preseason baseline than last year's records alone.