2026 NFL Win Totals Are Out: Early Value Angles for Every Division

DraftKings has posted opening 2026 NFL win totals, and while the full schedule dates are still pending, every opponent is already known. That creates an early value window before free agency, the draft, and summer betting volume shift these numbers.

#AFC East

Buffalo and New England both carry strong totals, but the opponent mix is not soft. The Bills at under 10.5 plus money stands out as the cleaner value angle, while the Patriots under also deserves attention if the market keeps pricing them near the top of the conference.

For the Jets and Dolphins, the downside risk remains high. New York is already juiced toward the under, and Miami drew a difficult uncommon-opponent set that limits margin for error.

#AFC North

Cincinnati over 9.5 is one of the better early positions if continuity and health stabilize. Pittsburgh over 8.5 is also live for bettors who believe the roster floor is higher than the market implies.

Baltimore still has ceiling, but the number is expensive. Cleveland sits in the volatile middle where offseason quarterback decisions will likely drive the next major line move.

#AFC South

Indianapolis over 8.5 at plus odds is one of the strongest upside plays in this division. Jacksonville over 9.5 also has merit if you expect offensive growth to continue.

Tennessee can move quickly depending on offseason additions, but for now this board still prices them closer to a transitional year than a true leap.

#AFC West

This is where schedule density matters. Division games plus tough crossover opponents create thin margins, and any injury run can collapse an over ticket quickly.

Raiders under 5.5 is the clearest under look. Among contenders, Chargers under 10.5 is defensible if market optimism gets too aggressive before roster certainty improves.

#NFC East

The Eagles are the one team with a plausible over path at value pricing, while Dallas under 8.5 profiles as a sharper fade if defensive concerns persist.

Washington under 7.5 is also playable if rebound expectations outrun what the schedule and roster depth support.

#NFC North

Detroit over 10.5 is expensive but still justifiable with better health outcomes. Minnesota over 8.5 at plus odds is a reasonable value position if the quarterback situation improves even modestly.

Green Bay and Chicago remain competitive but less mispriced at open than the Lions and Vikings positions.

#NFC South

This division carries the weakest combined projection. Carolina under 6.5 is attractive against a tougher draw, and Tampa under 8.5 is viable depending on how the number holds through offseason movement.

New Orleans is the only clear over candidate if you trust their uncommon-opponent slate to provide a more stable path to eight wins.

#NFC West

Seattle and San Francisco offer cleaner over cases than Los Angeles at current prices. The Seahawks drew a friendlier uncommon-opponent profile, and the 49ers at plus money can outperform if core availability holds.

Arizona at 4.5 remains a pure split-ticket range that should stay sensitive to early-season injury and quarterback variance.

Bottom line: these are opening numbers, not final answers. The sharp process is identifying schedule-based edges now, then managing position size until free agency and draft outcomes reshape each team projection.