2026-27 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Open as Early Favorites

The first 2026-27 NFL MVP numbers are already on the board, and the early shape of the market is not surprising. Josh Allen opens as the favorite, with Lamar Jackson right behind him, while the rest of the field is packed with proven quarterbacks and a few younger names that sportsbooks clearly expect to rise.

This is still a very early snapshot of the race, so the board should be treated more like a long-range read on quarterback perception than a finished MVP market. Injuries, offseason moves, and early-season team success will all shift these numbers once the summer turns into real games.

#Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson lead the opening board

Allen opening at +600 tells you the market still sees him as the cleanest combination of elite production, team success, and voter-friendly profile. He has already built the kind of reputation that keeps him near the top of these odds unless something materially changes around him.

Jackson staying close behind fits the same logic. He remains one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks, and if Baltimore stacks wins again, he will stay in the middle of the conversation from the start.

#The next tier is crowded with proven quarterbacks

Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all land in the next range of the market, which makes sense for three different reasons. Burrow has the ceiling and the supporting cast to re-enter the race quickly. Mahomes never stays far from the top of any quarterback award market. Herbert is still the type of player who can shorten in a hurry if the Chargers get off to a strong start.

Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, and Trevor Lawrence also open inside a realistic range where a hot September could completely reshape the conversation. They are not favorites today, but they are close enough that the market clearly sees a path.

#Drake Maye is the early upside bet

Maye showing up at +900 is one of the more aggressive early numbers on the board. Sportsbooks are clearly pricing in breakout potential instead of waiting for him to prove it over a full season.

That does not automatically make him a bad number, but it does mean a lot of optimism is already baked in. If he starts fast, the price could look sharp. If not, the market may cool off quickly.

#The award still runs through quarterbacks

The MVP market keeps telling the same story every year: this is still a quarterback award until proven otherwise. Even when non-quarterbacks put together great seasons, voters almost always reward elite quarterback play tied to winning.

That is why the top of this board is dominated by names like Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Mahomes, and Herbert. It is also why younger quarterbacks such as Williams and Daniels can open shorter than some established veterans. If the market believes a quarterback can lead a winning team and put up big numbers, he gets priced like a real threat early.

#Longer shots worth watching

Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud all sit further down the board, but that does not make them irrelevant. Those prices are really a bet on team success plus narrative momentum.

If one of those quarterbacks leads a top seed or posts a clear statistical jump, the market will move fast. Early offseason odds are usually less about certainty and more about leaving room for a compelling story to develop.

#Bottom line

Allen and Jackson deserve favorite status at the top of the opening 2026-27 NFL MVP market, but the board is still loose enough that one strong offseason or one fast September stretch could flip the order quickly.

For now, the early value conversation is less about chasing the outright favorite and more about deciding which quarterback has the cleanest path to team wins, headline numbers, and voter attention once the season starts.