Confidence Rankings: Super Bowl Odds for the 8 NFL Playoff Teams Still Standing

#Confidence Rankings: Super Bowl Odds for the 8 Teams Still Standing

The NFL postseason has a way of humbling even the most confident predictions. A season that looked predictable in October unraveled quickly, and the opening round of the playoffs only reinforced how thin the margins are this time of year.

With six teams already eliminated, the picture is clearer — but far from settled. Each remaining contender still has a realistic path to the Lombardi Trophy, shaped by matchup difficulty, health, and how much margin for error they can afford over the next three weeks.

Below is a confidence ranking of the eight teams still alive, ordered from least likely to most likely to finish the job.

#How the Remaining Paths Stack Up

Each team’s road matters just as much as its talent. Home-field advantage, short rest, and opponent familiarity all factor heavily into how realistic a Super Bowl run actually is.

#8. San Francisco 49ers

Seed: No. 6
Record: 13–5
Super Bowl odds: +1900

Few teams have battled through more adversity this season. Injuries on both sides of the ball have narrowed the margin for error to almost nothing, especially heading into consecutive road matchups against elite competition.

San Francisco has the coaching acumen and schematic discipline to survive difficult environments, but asking a depleted roster to string together three near-perfect performances feels like too much. The path exists — it’s just the steepest of the group.

#7. Denver Broncos

Seed: No. 1
Record: 14–3
Super Bowl odds: +700

The top seed in the conference comes with obvious advantages, but questions linger. Denver dominated close games during the regular season and faced fewer postseason-caliber opponents than most of the field.

The defense is playoff-ready. The offense has been efficient, though not explosive. Whether that formula holds against more battle-tested opponents will determine if the bye week becomes a springboard — or a false sense of security.

#6. Chicago Bears

Seed: No. 2
Record: 12–6
Super Bowl odds: +1600

Chicago has lived on volatility. Big swings, quick comebacks, and momentum shifts have defined their run, making them one of the most unpredictable teams left.

That chaos gives them upset potential, but it also leaves them vulnerable against disciplined opponents who don’t crack under pressure. Falling behind early has become a habit — and that’s a dangerous trend this late in the postseason.

#5. Houston Texans

Seed: No. 5
Record: 13–5
Super Bowl odds: +850

If defense truly wins championships, Houston belongs near the top of this list. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks and erase passing lanes travels well, regardless of venue.

The question lies on the other side of the ball. Offensive inconsistency has lingered all season, placing extra strain on a defense that has already carried a heavy load. If balance emerges, the ceiling rises fast.

#4. New England Patriots

Seed: No. 2
Record: 15–3
Super Bowl odds: +600

Few teams check as many boxes. Strong coaching, situational discipline, and control of pace define this group. Blowout wins were common, and the roster rarely beats itself.

The lingering concern is opponent quality. Dominating weaker schedules doesn’t always translate once the field narrows. A tougher slate awaits, and how New England handles that jump will shape its postseason fate.

#3. Buffalo Bills

Seed: No. 6
Record: 13–5
Super Bowl odds: +650

Road games loom large, but elite quarterback play can erase venue disadvantages quickly. Buffalo has survived inconsistency before, leaning on improvisation and late-game execution to escape tight spots.

Health on the defensive front could swing everything. If reinforcements arrive in time, the Bills have the firepower and experience to survive multiple hostile environments.

#2. Los Angeles Rams

Seed: No. 5
Record: 13–5
Super Bowl odds: +320

Experience matters this time of year, and Los Angeles has it in abundance. The roster is balanced, the offense can adjust on the fly, and the pass rush remains a constant threat.

Road games are the biggest obstacle. Cold weather, unfamiliar stadiums, and special teams lapses create risk — but among the remaining field, few teams feel as structurally complete.

#1. Seattle Seahawks

Seed: No. 1
Record: 14–3
Super Bowl odds: +270

Everything lines up. Home-field advantage, defensive consistency, and offensive flexibility give Seattle the cleanest path to February football.

They can win multiple ways, adapt to game flow, and punish mistakes without needing perfection. Among the eight remaining teams, no one enters the Divisional Round with more controllable variables — and that stability matters most this time of year.

#Final Takeaway

Parity has defined this season, but clarity is finally emerging. While chaos is always one play away, the remaining contenders now face paths that reveal just how narrow championship windows can be.

One bad quarter ends everything. One dominant stretch can rewrite a season.

That’s the NFL in January.